The Gist: After having a long plateau period, the 7-day moving average of coronavirus cases per day in Georgia appears to be decreasing.
A note about the numbers
Analyzing the numbers can be tricky when talking about COVID-19 because people who have it can take 14 days to show symptoms. That means, the best numbers we have on the spread of the virus are always about 14 days old. While the Georgia Department of Health reports the pending numbers, they are not accurate until the dates move out of the 14-day window. So, the solid numbers we are looking at right now end at May 4, which is just four days after Georgia’s shelter-in-place order was lifted.
The plateau
According to charts released by the Georgia Department of Public health, Georgia appears to have plateaued in the number of average cases per day from about April 10 through April 25. At its highest, on April 22 the 7-day-moving average metric was 766. There were 856 cases that day. The highest number of cases confirmed in a single day actually occurred after the 7-day-average peaked, on April 28 when the state saw 937 confirmed cases.
Dropping numbers
The decline in the average number of cases per day begins April 26 and appears to be continuing.
Since Shelter-in-Place
While only four days of reporting are currently outside the 14-day window, those days are showing a decline in the average number of cases reported per day, but that doesn’t necessarily mean every day has had fewer cases reported than the day before.
On May 1, the day the state’s shelter-in-place order was lifted the average number of cases per day was 682. The number of confirmed cases that day was 732. The next two days saw a much sharper increase in the number of cases reported, largely due to it being a weekend. On May 2 the average number dropped to 665 and the number of cases reported on May 2 was 329. On May 3, the average was 654 and the number of confirmed cases that day was 250.
The next day, May 4, saw a spike in the number of cases, usually accounted for by catching up from the weekend. The average continued its decline and was 640. The number of cases reported that day was 818.
May 4 is the last date currently available outside the 14-day window. Numbers are still subject to change for dates from May 5 through May 18.
What does it mean?
While the average number of cases in Georgia is starting to decline, the state is still seeing days with high numbers of confirmed cases.
Overall Numbers
As of 1 p.m. May 18, Georgia has had a total of 38,081 coronavirus cases, 6,916 hospitalizations, 1,565 ICU admissions and 1,642 deaths. The state has processed a total of 364,289 tests.
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